RISMEDIA, Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Freddie Mac recently released the results of its third quarter 2013 quarterly refinance analysis, showing that borrowers are continuing to take advantage of near record low mortgage rates to lower their monthly payments, shorten their loan terms and overwhelmingly choosing the safety of long-term fixed-rate mortgages. Borrowers who refinanced in the third quarter of 2013 will save on net approximately $6 billion in interest over the next 12 months.
“With mortgage rates still near their historic lows, 37 percent of refinancing borrowers chose to shorten their loan term,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “Mortgage rates on 15-year fixed-rate loans averaged nearly a full percentage point below 30-year loans during the third quarter, providing a financial incentive for homeowners to term shorten. HARP refinancers have an additional incentive to shorten as some origination fees are waived.”
• Of borrowers who refinanced during the third quarter of 2013, 37 percent shortened their loan term, up 5 percent from the previous quarter and the highest since 1992. Further, 40 percent of those who refinanced outside of HARP took out a shorter-term loan, while 32 percent of HARP borrowers shortened their term. Borrowers who kept the same term as the loan that they had paid off represented 59 percent and only 4 percent chose to lengthen their loan term.
• The net dollars of home equity converted to cash as part of a refinance remained low compared to historical volumes. In the third quarter, an estimated $6.4 billion in net home equity was cashed out during a refinance of conventional prime-credit home mortgages. The peak in cash-out refinance volume was $84 billion during the second quarter of 2006. Adjusted for inflation, annual cash-out volumes during 2010 through 2013 have been the smallest since 1997.
• The average interest rate reduction was about 1.8 percentage points — a savings of about 30 percent. On a $200,000 loan, that translates into saving about $3,500 in interest during the next 12 months. For all borrowers that refinanced during the third quarter, the estimated interest savings over the next 12 months will be about $6 billion. Homeowners who refinanced through HARP during the third quarter of 2013 benefited from an average rate reduction of 1.9 percentage points and will save an average of $3,850 in interest during the first 12 months, or about $320 every month.
• About 85 percent of those who refinanced their first-lien home mortgage maintained about the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance by paying in additional money at the closing table. That’s just shy of the 88 percent peak during the second quarter of 2012.
• More than 95 percent of refinancing borrowers chose a fixed-rate loan. Fixed-rate loans were preferred regardless of what the original loan product had been. For example, 86 percent of borrowers who had a hybrid ARM refinanced into a fixed-rate loan during the second quarter. In contrast, only 3 percent of borrowers who had a fixed-rate loan chose an ARM.
• With mortgage rates remaining below 5 percent for most of the past four years, relatively few homeowners with loans taken in this period would have much incentive to refinance. Consequently, the median age the original loan was outstanding before refinance increased to 6.7 years during the third quarter, the most since the analysis began in 1985.
“By obtaining lower interest rates, borrowers will save approximately $6 billion in interest over the next 12 months, which they can put towards savings, paying down debt or supporting additional expenditures,” says Nothaft. “Further, the estimated $6.4 billion in ‘cash-out’ activity will further augment borrowers’ investment and consumption spending.”
For more information please visit www.FreddieMac.com
RISMEDIA, Monday, October 28, 2013
Freddie Mac recently released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates hitting their lowest levels since this summer amid market speculation that the Federal Reserve will not alter its bond buying purchases this year.
• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending October 24, 2013, down from last week when it averaged 4.28 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.41 percent.
• The 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.24 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.33 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.72 percent.
• Survey shows the 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.00 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.07 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.75 percent.
• The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.60 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.63 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.59 percent.
“Mortgage rates slid this week as the partial government shutdown led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve will not alter its bond purchases this year,” says Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac. “The weak employment report for September added to this expectation. The economy added just 148,000 jobs, which was below the market consensus forecast and less than the 193,000 jobs increase in August.”
For more information, visit www.FreddieMac.com.
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Housing market heats up — and it’s just getting started
The housing market is still gaining strength even in the face of recent home loan rate increases. Housing starts were up 5.9% annualized from June to July. Building permits, rose 2.7%,better than anticipated. National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose in August to its best level in almost 8 years.
July Retail Sales were up for the 4th month in a row. In the labor market, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 320,000, the lowest since October 2007.
Inflation (both wholesale and consumer) has stayed moderate.
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Table Source: Mortgage Success Source
Last week, CoreLogic reported that home prices across the U.S. rose by nearly 12 percent from June 2012 to June 2013. By comparison, home prices only rose 3.76 percent from June 2011 to June 2012. In addition, research and analytics firm Clear Capital said that prices rose 9.3 percent in the year ending in July.
While housing markets have turned the corner, this pace of growth may be unsustainable. With home loan rates rising over the past several months, this rate of appreciation could slow.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 5,000 in the latest week to 333,000, below the 340,000 expected. This followed the Jobs Report for July, somewhat disappointing with less jobs created than expected.
What does this mean for home loan rates? When will the Fed start tapering its bond purchases? The Fed has been buying $85 billion of bonds a month to help stimulate the economy and housing market. This includes mortgage bonds, to which home loan rates are tied, and these purchases have helped home loan rates remain attractive.
The Fed has said the rate of its purchases will continue to depend on economic data and could be increased or decreased accordingly. Last week, several Fed members spoke out in favor of tapering these purchases as early as the Fed’s meeting in mid-September. However, with our economy growing at sub 2 percent, economic data between now and September will be a key factor in this decision.
Home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels and now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance.
From Weekly Update by Quy Huynh
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John W. Schoen | CNBC | July 30, 2013 at 3:02 PM ET
If you tried to buy a home in Phoenix a year ago, you probably would have been able to land it for well under the asking price.
Those days are gone. In a city that was hit hard after the housing bubble burst in 2007, you’re more likely to encounter a bidding war for that split-level ranch on the cul-de-sac you had your eye on.
Prices have leapt 20 percent in the last year in Phoenix. Real estate agent Tucker Blaylock says they will keep rising as long as interest rates remain near historic lows, thanks to the Federal Reserve. Read more…
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RISMEDIA, Saturday, June 22, 2013
Freddie Mac recently released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for June showing the effects rising interest rates are having on certain markets around the country and the overall housing recovery. A short preview video and the complete June 2013 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook are available here.
Outlook Highlights
Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have risen about 0.5 percentage points over the past several weeks and are expected to hover around 4.0 percent during the second half of 2013.
With rising mortgage rates, expect a sharp decline in refinance volume in the second half of this year; refinance originations are expected to total about $1.1 trillion in 2013, down from $1.5 trillion in 2012.
At today’s house prices and income levels, mortgage rates would have to be nearly 7 percent before… Read more
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