NABOR: Strong end to 2013, median home prices up

On Friday (January 17, 2014), the Naples Area Board of Realtors reported overall median home prices increased 18 percent, to $240,000 percent in 2013 from 2012.

From NaplesNews.com

Housing Markets Continue Slow Climb Back to Normal

RISMEDIA, Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Markets in 54 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released recently.

The index’s nationwide score of .86 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide market is running at 86 percent of normal economic and housing activity.

The LMI figures for November showed that 55 housing markets were operating at or above their last normal levels and the nationwide market was operating at 85 percent of normal growth. LMI data for the two months were released simultaneously because of the delay in collecting data during the partial government shutdown in October.

“This index shows that most housing markets across the nation are continuing a slow, gradual climb back to normal levels,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Policymakers must guard against actions that could impede or even reverse the modest gains of the past year.”

Noting that smaller metros accounted for most of the 54 markets on the current LMI that are at or above normal levels, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said that “smaller markets are leading the way, particularly where energy is the primary economic driver. Nearly half of the markets in the top 54 are in the energy states of Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana.”

“The fact that more than 125 markets on this month’s LMI are showing activity levels of at least 90 percent of previous norms bodes well for a continuing housing recovery in 2014,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.

Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.42 – or 42 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.

Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.

The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.

For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.

Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Continues to Improve in Third Quarter

RISMEDIA, Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market showed continued improvement in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. All segments of the market—single-family homes, condominiums and multifamily rental—registered strong increases. The single-family index increased 14 points to a level of 50, which is the highest third-quarter number since the inception of the index in 2008 and the eighth consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.

“We have seen steady improvement in the 55+ housing sector as buyers and renters are attracted to new homes and communities that offer the lifestyle they desire” says Robert Karen, chairman of NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council and managing member of the Symphony Development Group. “Although the market is significantly stronger than it has been in recent years, we still have a ways to go to get back to full production.”

There are separate 55+ HMIs for two segments of the 55+ housing market: single-family homes and multifamily condominiums. Each 55+ HMI measures builder sentiment based on a survey that asks if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for that market are good, fair or poor (high, average or low for traffic). An index number below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good.

“Right now the positive year over year increase in confidence by builders for the 55+ market is tracking right along with other segments of the home building industry,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “And like other segments of the industry, the 55+ market is improving in part because consumers are more likely to be able to sell their current homes, which allows them to buy a new home or move into an apartment that suits their specific needs.”

All of the components of the 55+ single-family HMI showed considerable growth from a year ago: present sales climbed 16 points to 52, expected sales for the next six months rose 11 points to 53 and traffic of prospective buyers increased 10 points to 43.

The 55+ multifamily condo HMI posted a gain of 14 points to 37, which is the highest third-quarter reading since the inception of the index. All 55+ multifamily condo HMI components increased compared to a year ago as present sales increased 15 points to 37, expected sales for the next six months climbed 11 points to 40 and traffic of prospective buyers rose 13 points to 35.

The 55+ multifamily rental indices also showed strong gains in the third quarter as present production increased 17 points to 48, expected future production rose 15 points to 50, current demand for existing units climbed 18 points to 60 and future demand increased 16 points to 60.

For more information, and the full 55+ HMI tables, visit nahb.org/55hmi.

Recovery to Continue in 2014

Says NAR; Rates and Home Prices Predicted to Rise

By Nick Caruso | RISMEDIA, Thursday, November 14, 2013

The real estate market will continue its road to recovery in 2014, with home prices rising 6 percent and mortgage rates hitting 5.4 percent. In addition, demand is predicted to plateau, all according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of Research for the National Association of REALTORS®, who presented his 2014 market forecast during last week’s REALTORS® Conference and Expo.

Other factors aim to set the market back on the right path. Although there could be a possible negative impact due to rising mortgage rates, job creation and loosening underwriting standards should balance out 2014’s sales volume.

“There were two million jobs created in the past few months and we’ll see the same next year,” says Yun. “These people could potentially enter the market.”

Yun does not see, however, an increase in unit sales nationwide, as inventory levels remain an issue to keep an eye on. Currently, the nation is under one million and this number needs to increase 50-60 percent in order to get back to normal numbers.

“I don’t foresee that next year, but maybe we can at least make up half the needed gain to steadily reduce the inventory pressure,” he says.

While existing home sales are expected to remain flat at roughly 5.1 million units, new homes could rise by 25 percent from 430,000 to 510,000 next year. This part of the market is still in recovery due to the difficulties for smaller builders to obtain financing. This should continue easing throughout the next year.

When prompted further about how the rising mortgage rate will affect sales and the market, Yun responded: “Assuming nothing changes further, I believe it takes about 10 percent right off the top in terms of people who qualified this year versus the same people who would qualify next year. If need be, NAR will be pushing for new legislation to clarify what QM and QRM are so that we don’t get hit by that 10 percent.”

With the housing market is recovering for most Americans, homeowners will be more concerned than ever about their home values in 2014. Actual price increases for 2013 was 11 percent, which is now expected to be a six percent rise next year. The way to relieve home price pressure is for more inventory to come into the market, says Yun.

“We were surprised by how fast inventory would decline, but there was always a fresh set of inventory trickling in as it went out,” he says.

Overall in 2013, investor activity has been normal, but numbers slightly declined. Though, more small-time investors entered the market, staying one step ahead of the population, consistently punching numbers to see what transactions made the most sense for them. “If investors remain active, it implies that housing is a good buy,” says Yun.

Despite some cautionary areas, the real estate market has its beacons of potential. The industry may not be back to its best numbers yet, but we are still heading in the right direction and making our way down that road to recovery.

“We’ve had a decent year this year and next year will be roughly the same.”