RISMEDIA, Monday, February 10, 2014
Led by a resurgence in single-family production, housing will continue its climb toward higher ground in 2014, but builders are still confronting several challenges, according to economists speaking at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) International Builders’ Show (IBS) in Las Vegas.
“My single-family forecast for 2014 is pretty aggressive—822,000 starts, which is likely 200,000 more than 2013,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “There are five key points to the turnaround. Consumers are back, pent-up demand is emerging, there is a growing need for new construction, distressed sales are diminishing and builders see it.” Consumer confidence has returned to pre-recession levels and household balance sheets are on the mend. Year-over-year household formations are on the rise and now averaging 620,000 compared to just 500,000 during the housing downturn. At the height of the housing boom, the U.S. was producing 1.4 million additional households each year. Meanwhile, new-home sales are averaging just 8.7 percent of total home sales—barely half the historical average of 16.1 percent.
In the midst of the Great Recession, the cumulative lost number of existing home sales between 2007 and 2011 totaled more than 4 million, Crowe says. Moreover, the percentage of mortgages seriously delinquent has fallen and the decline has been larger in markets that had the highest rates.
In a sign that builders are well aware of the trend now under way, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which measures builder sentiment in the single-family housing market, has been above the 50 mark for the past eight months. Any reading above 50 means that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
However, Crowe cautioned that builders still face several headwinds, including rising building material prices, persistently tight mortgage credit conditions, difficulties in obtaining accurate appraisals and limited availability in labor and developed lots.
Moreover, gridlock and uncertainty in Washington threaten to harm consumer confidence and future housing demand.
NAHB forecast for 2014:
• 1.15 million total housing starts in 2014, up 24.5 percent from 2013’s 928,000 units.
• Single-family production projected to rise 32 percent to 822,000 units and surge an additional 41 percent to 1.16 million units in 2015.
• 333,000 multifamily starts, up 9 percent from 306,000 in 2013.
• Single-family home sales are projected to hit 584,000 this year, a 35.9 percent increase above last year’s 430,000 sales.
• Residential remodeling activity is expected to register a modest gain this year over 2013.
• A slow and steady housing recovery will bring nationwide housing starts to 71 percent of normal by fourth quarter 2014 and 93 percent of normal by the end of 2015, Crowe says.
• On a state level, the top 20 percent of states will be back to normal production levels by the end of 2015, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 84 percent.
Mortgage rates up, but housing still affordable
As the economy strengthens and the Federal Reserve tapers its buy-back of mortgage-backed securities, there will be upward pressure on mortgage rates, but not enough to harm housing affordability, according to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac.
“Regarding mortgage rates, we’ve gone from dirt cheap to cheap, and I think we will see a gradual rise of about a half a percentage point to 5 percent in 2014,” says Nothaft. But even then, he says, “most markets will remain quite affordable.”
Nationally, Nothaft expects that home sales and prices will each rise about 5 percent in 2014, and that housing starts will post a 20 percent gain.
“As we move into the 2014 home buying season, it will be a market dominated by home buying originations rather than refinance originations,” says Nothaft. “This will be the first time since 2000 that purchase originations will dominate the market.”
He says the reason for the change is because so many households looking to refinance have already done so, and as mortgage rates gradually rise, fewer homeowners will look to refinance. Further, purchase originations are expected to increase as the overall housing market strengthens.
Pent-up demand will fuel growth
In the aftermath of the Great Recession, there is a significant pent-up demand to form households and even to build homes, says David Berson, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide Insurance.
“At least 3 million fewer households formed over the past five years than would normally have been expected,” he says, noting that during this period many college graduates were forced to double-up or move in with their parents. Stronger job growth and a strengthening economy in 2014 should lead to a rise in household formations, which will be important to supplement housing demand.
“I think this will be a pretty good year for home construction,” says Berson. “There will be a big increase in single-family construction, but not as much for multifamily.”
For more information, visit www.nahb.org.
RISMEDIA | Friday, January 24, 2014
Existing-home sales edged up in December, sales for all of 2013 were the highest since 2006, and median prices maintained strong growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in December from a downwardly revised 4.82 million in November, but are 0.6 percent below the 4.90 million-unit level in December 2012.
For all of 2013, there were 5.09 million sales, which is 9.1 percent higher than 2012. It was the strongest performance since 2006 when sales reached an unsustainably high 6.48 million at the close of the housing boom. Read more…
On Friday (January 17, 2014), the Naples Area Board of Realtors reported overall median home prices increased 18 percent, to $240,000 percent in 2013 from 2012.
From NaplesNews.com
RISMEDIA, Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Markets in 54 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released recently.
The index’s nationwide score of .86 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide market is running at 86 percent of normal economic and housing activity.
The LMI figures for November showed that 55 housing markets were operating at or above their last normal levels and the nationwide market was operating at 85 percent of normal growth. LMI data for the two months were released simultaneously because of the delay in collecting data during the partial government shutdown in October.
“This index shows that most housing markets across the nation are continuing a slow, gradual climb back to normal levels,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Policymakers must guard against actions that could impede or even reverse the modest gains of the past year.”
Noting that smaller metros accounted for most of the 54 markets on the current LMI that are at or above normal levels, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said that “smaller markets are leading the way, particularly where energy is the primary economic driver. Nearly half of the markets in the top 54 are in the energy states of Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana.”
“The fact that more than 125 markets on this month’s LMI are showing activity levels of at least 90 percent of previous norms bodes well for a continuing housing recovery in 2014,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report.
Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.42 – or 42 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Pittsburgh – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their market activity now exceeds previous norms.
Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Grand Forks, N.D., respectively.
The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of economic and housing activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.
For historical information and charts, please go to nahb.org/lmi.
By Steve Cook | RISMEDIA, Monday, November 25, 2013
A majority of the nation’s largest markets, 52 percent, have now recovered more than half of the equity they lost during the Great Recession, according to the latest Rebound Report from Homes.com.
For the fourth consecutive month, all of the 200 midsize local markets measured continued to show gains year over year for the single-family index in October. While the number of top 100 markets achieving a full recovery remained flat from the previous month, there was noticeable improvement in the number of these markets pertaining to overall recovery. Three markets moved out of the 0-25 percent rebound range, and three markets moved up in the 75-100 percent rebound range.
Month-over-month increases in index values were seen in 251 of the top 300 markets, down from 253 the previous month. The slight downtrend is likely due to both seasonal trends and the state of recovery for these markets. Of the 49 markets that saw declines last month, 18 have fully recovered their decline in home prices from the housing bubble and show signs of continuing stabilization.
Seasonal downtrends, along with market stabilization, continued to trend at the end of the third quarter increased month to month – slightly down by three from last month’s report. However, the month-to-month declines displayed by 39 markets are relatively nominal, with the largest decrease being -0.93 index points in Lynchburg, Va.
“As we end the third quarter, both large and small markets that previously achieved full price recovery from the housing depression consolidated their gains reached during the home buying season. One in four surpassed their pre-recession peak values,” said Brock MacLean, executive vice president of Homes.com. “These price gains are restoring millions of homeowners to positive equity and are reviving local real estate markets across the country.”
The latest Homes.com Local Market Index reports:
- Year-over-year increases in all top 300 markets.
- Monthly increases in 90 of the top 100 markets and in 161 of the 200 midsized markets.
- Honolulu, Hawaii remains the top gaining market on a year-over-year basis, with a 28.88 index point or 13.07 percent increase.
- California markets [Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.; San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif.; Bakersfield-Delano, Calif.] are the remaining 4 in the top 5. Year-over-year, they increased 26.73, 25.98, 25.41 and 20.32 index points, respectively, but are only an average of 32 percent back to recovery.
- All of the top 10 monthly gaining markets from the top 100 are in the West, up from nine in the previous month and six in the month prior to that.
- Highlights from the Homes.com Rebound Report for the top 300 markets show:
- 80 have made more than a 100 percent rebound, indicating a complete recovery in these markets. This is an increase from 77 markets in the previous reporting period.
- The three newest markets to achieve a full rebound are Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, Iowa-Ill., Santa Fe, N.M. and Jefferson City, Mo.
- 152 show more than a 50 percent rebound, up from 143 markets in the previous month.
- 24 percent (19) of the 80 fully rebounded markets reported month-over-month losses, and the remaining averaged 1 percent gains month-over-month compared to .75 percent gain in non-recovered markets. This illustrates the seasonal downtrend in the housing market along with a leveling of home prices.
22 markets were not affected by the boom-bust scenario of the U.S. housing bubble. These markets did not experience the same peak-to-trough decline displayed by the remaining 278 markets. All of these markets are midsize markets, with half from the state of Texas and 73 percent from energy-producing areas. They include: Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas; Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Texas; Shreveport-Bossier City, La.; Anchorage, Alaska; Fayetteville, N.C.; Charleston, W.Va.; Lubbock, Texas; Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; Waco, Texas; College Station-Bryan, Texas; Longview, Texas; Tyler, Texas; Fargo, N.D.-Minn.; Jacksonville, N.C.; Monroe, La.; Waterloo-Cedar Falls,
For more information, visit www.Realestateeconomywatch.com.
RISMEDIA, Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market showed continued improvement in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. All segments of the market—single-family homes, condominiums and multifamily rental—registered strong increases. The single-family index increased 14 points to a level of 50, which is the highest third-quarter number since the inception of the index in 2008 and the eighth consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.
“We have seen steady improvement in the 55+ housing sector as buyers and renters are attracted to new homes and communities that offer the lifestyle they desire” says Robert Karen, chairman of NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council and managing member of the Symphony Development Group. “Although the market is significantly stronger than it has been in recent years, we still have a ways to go to get back to full production.”
There are separate 55+ HMIs for two segments of the 55+ housing market: single-family homes and multifamily condominiums. Each 55+ HMI measures builder sentiment based on a survey that asks if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for that market are good, fair or poor (high, average or low for traffic). An index number below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good.
“Right now the positive year over year increase in confidence by builders for the 55+ market is tracking right along with other segments of the home building industry,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “And like other segments of the industry, the 55+ market is improving in part because consumers are more likely to be able to sell their current homes, which allows them to buy a new home or move into an apartment that suits their specific needs.”
All of the components of the 55+ single-family HMI showed considerable growth from a year ago: present sales climbed 16 points to 52, expected sales for the next six months rose 11 points to 53 and traffic of prospective buyers increased 10 points to 43.
The 55+ multifamily condo HMI posted a gain of 14 points to 37, which is the highest third-quarter reading since the inception of the index. All 55+ multifamily condo HMI components increased compared to a year ago as present sales increased 15 points to 37, expected sales for the next six months climbed 11 points to 40 and traffic of prospective buyers rose 13 points to 35.
The 55+ multifamily rental indices also showed strong gains in the third quarter as present production increased 17 points to 48, expected future production rose 15 points to 50, current demand for existing units climbed 18 points to 60 and future demand increased 16 points to 60.
For more information, and the full 55+ HMI tables, visit nahb.org/55hmi.
