Amid Falling Foreclosure Rates and Rising Prices, Trade-Up Buyers Are Coming Back

RISMEDIA, Friday, September 13, 2013— With foreclosure sales in rapid decline nationwide and in high demand in many fast-rising markets, a report released this week by mortgage technology company FNC indicates that housing demand by trade-up buyers is rising as the home equity available to these prospective buyers is improving.

According to FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report,  the foreclosure market has rapidly improved in recent months with foreclosure rates approaching pre-crisis levels—an indication of strengthening supply-side conditions. On the demand side, steadily rising home prices and an expectation of continued recovery have stimulated housing turnover by prospective buyers who are in a position to take advantage of low home prices. In the meantime, higher home prices are bringing out trade-up demand from existing homeowners who are experiencing rising home equity, which supports a down payment on their next bigger house.

“We’ve seen hard data from the past 18 months that shows rising home prices and a foreclosure market with diminished impact due to decreasing foreclosure inventories and fewer new foreclosure filings,” said FNC Director of Research Yanling Mayer. “Meanwhile, a very encouraging trend that has been developing is the rising participation of trade-up buyers who are seeing improving home equity position and positive capital appreciation on existing homes.

“An important sign of a healthy and sustainable recovery is increased housing turnover driven by trade-up buying, which is more or less discretionary spending,” Mayer said. “These buyers are typically more responsive to market conditions and financial incentives.”

FNC’s report shows that foreclosure price discounts, which compare a foreclosed home’s estimated market value to the price paid by investors or home buyers, have dropped to a 10-year low at about 8.1% in Q2 2013, down from 12.5% a year ago. At the height of the mortgage crisis in 2008 and 2009, foreclosed homes were typically sold at close to 25% below their estimated market value. In many fast-rising markets, such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, and California, investor activity and low foreclosure inventory drove foreclosure prices up, frequently resulting in a price premium relative to estimated market value.

FNC publishes the mortgage industry’s first market-value based foreclosure price discount to gauge the degree of market distress. For more information about the foreclosure price discount, please refer to FNC’s March 2011 report located here.

According to the FNC report, investing in foreclosed property continues to be profitable with gross capital appreciation – the annualized percentage difference between a foreclosed property’s sales price and subsequent resale price – averaged at 7.8% on sales of homes previously purchased at foreclosure sales. In the meantime, ownership duration on distressed investment is up, along with the average ownership duration of all existing home sales.

More highlights from FNC’s Foreclosure Market Report:

• Single-family REO and foreclosure sales are 12.2% of total home sales as of July, down from 17.3% a year ago.
• The median foreclosure price is $98,000 or $67 per square foot, up 6.8% since the housing recovery began 18 months ago. In comparison, the median price on non-foreclosure sales is $205,000 or $118 per square foot, up 21.7% during the same 18-month period.
• Foreclosure price discounts are typically larger for low-tier properties, averaging 13.7% in Q2 2013. One in four homes continues to be discounted heavily. High-end properties, on the other hand, are typically sold close to their market value.
• At 86% of total foreclosure sales, low-tier properties continue to account for the bulk of foreclosure sales. Prior to the housing bubble, low-tier homes contributed more than 90% to foreclosure sales.
• Collateral depreciation on foreclosure sales – the difference between a property’s prior purchase price and foreclosure sale price – continues to decelerate, down to 3.8% in Q2 2013 from 6.4% a year earlier. Among the re-sales of non-distressed homes, for 16 consecutive months the median home is sold at a price above its prior purchase price – enabling potential trade-up buyers to capture a small capital appreciation.
• Despite declining foreclosure rates, Michigan continues to be the nation’s most distressed market with one in three homes sold during Q2 2013 being foreclosed properties.
• Arizona, California, Nevada, and Oregon have seen the fastest declines in foreclosure rates in the ongoing recovery, down respectively from 30.7%, 33.4%, 44.9%, and 24.2% entering 2012 to 11.9%, 12.4%, 15.3%, and 7.2% by Q2 2013. At 3.2% of total home sales, the District of Columbia has the lowest foreclosure rate.
• States with continued high foreclosure rates include Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Tennessee. More notably, foreclosure rates in Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky are trending steadily upward in recent months, dampening home prices.
• Among the largest housing markets (MSAs), New York, Boston, Portland, San Francisco, and Washington D.C. have the lowest foreclosure rates at 4.3%, 5.4%, 6.8%, 7.0%, and 8.3%, respectively, compared to a national average of 14.8% in Q2 2013. In contrast, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Cincinnati have the highest foreclosure rates at 34.7%, 27.1%, 24.3%, 19.4%, and 19.3%, respectively.
• Of the cities identified by the Federal Reserve Board as the largest REO inventory markets entering 2012, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Riverside, CA., have since improved and are in strong recovery. The recovery in Atlanta is on par with the national trend and in the 18-month period, home prices are up 9.8%; foreclosure rates are down from 32.0% to 19.4%; and the foreclosure price discount is down from 18.8% to 8.7%. Conditions in Detroit are improving despite continued high foreclosure rates. Chicago, however, lags behind the rest of the country in the ongoing recovery – foreclosure rates are elevated at about 27%, contributing to the continued weakness of home prices.

For more information visit http://www.fncrpi.com.

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Existing-Home Sales Rise 6.5% in July

Double Digits Remain on Median Home Prices

RISMEDIA, Thursday, August 22, 2013

U.S. existing-home sales rose strongly in July, jumping to their highest level in almost four years—with the median price maintaining double-digit year-over-year increases, according to data released yesterday morning by the National Association of REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 6.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million in July from a downwardly revised 5.06 million in June, and are 17.2 percent above the 4.60 million-unit pace in July 2012; sales have remained above year-ago levels for 25 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says changes in affordability are impacting the market. “Mortgage interest rates are at the highest level in two years, pushing some buyers off the sidelines,” he says. “The initial rise in interest rates provided strong incentive for closing deals. However, further rate increases will diminish the pool of eligible buyers.”

Despite higher mortgage interest rates, Yun identified compensating factors that can sustain a continued recovery. “Although housing affordability conditions will become less attractive, jobs are being added to the economy, and mortgage underwriting standards should normalize over time from current stringent conditions as default rates fall.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.37 percent in July from 4.07 percent in June, and is the highest since July 2011 when it was 4.55 percent; the rate was 3.55 percent in July 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of July rose 5.6 percent to 2.28 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from June. Listed inventory is 5.0 percent below a year ago, when there was a 6.3-month supply.

“Tight inventory in many areas means above-normal price growth for the foreseeable future,” Yun says.

The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $213,500 in July, which is 13.7 percent above July 2012. This marks 17 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases, which last occurred from January 2005 to May 2006.

The median price has risen at double-digit rates for the past eight months, and is now 7.3 percent below the all-time record of $230,400 in July 2006. Two years ago, the median price was 25.7 percent below the peak.

Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 15 percent of July sales, the same as in June and matching the lowest share since monthly tracking began in October 2008; they were 24 percent in July 2012. Continuing declines in the share of distressed sales account for some of the price gain.

Nine percent of July sales were foreclosures, and 6 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value in July, while short sales were discounted 12 percent.

The median time on market for all homes was 42 days in July, up from 37 days in June, but is 39 percent faster than the 69 days on market in July 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 72 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 50 days and non-distressed homes took 40 days. Forty-five percent of homes sold in July were on the market for less than a month.

Data from realtor.com, NAR’s listing site, shows the tightest inventory conditions, reported as median age of inventory, are in Oakland, Calif., 20 days; Denver, 31 days; and the Seattle area, 36 days. First-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of purchases in July, unchanged from June, but are down from 34 percent in July 2012. All-cash sales comprised 31 percent of transactions in July, the same as in June; they were 27 percent in July 2012. Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 16 percent of homes in July, down from 17 percent in June; they reached a cyclical peak of 22 percent in February of this year.

NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., says more repeat buyers are using cash. “The overall percentage of cash purchases has been fairly steady, as has the share of first-time buyers, but the investor share has been trending down since February. This means more repeat buyers are using cash in this tight-credit environment,” he says. “With a steady decline in lower priced inventory, particularly in foreclosures, investors are finding fewer bargains to buy.”

Single-family home sales rose 6.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million in July from 4.48 million in June, and are 16.4 percent higher than the 4.09 million-unit level in July 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $214,000 in July, up 13.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 630,000 units in July from 580,000 in June, and are 23.5 percent above the 510,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $209,600 in July, which is 15.5 percent higher than July 2012.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 12.7 percent to an annual rate of 710,000 in July and are 20.3 percent above July 2012. The median price in the Northeast was $271,200, up 6.7 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 5.8 percent in July to a pace of 1.28 million, and are 20.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $168,300, which is 9.5 percent above July 2012.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 5.0 percent to an annual level of 2.11 million in July and are 16.6 percent above July 2012. The median price in the South was $183,400, up 13.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 6.6 percent to a pace of 1.29 million in July and are 13.2 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the West, driven the most by a supply imbalance, was $287,500, which is 19.2 percent above July 2012.

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