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Collier, Lee population growth among top three in state, new study shows

By JUNE FLETCHER | Sunday, September 8, 2013

NAPLES — Southwest Florida is undergoing another growth spurt.

A new study released in the past week by Local Market Monitor shows that the population of the Naples-Marco Island metropolitan statistical area rose 11 percent during the past 12 months, second only to Miami statewide.

Cape Coral-Fort Myers isn’t far behind. Its residence base rose 10 percent year-over-year, tying it for third place with Orlando and North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota.

Both Southwest Florida areas experienced 47 percent growth since peak periods in the second quarter of 2006, second only to Port St. Lucie, the research group’s study said.

But unlike most cities, which grow in population when new jobs are created, Southwest Florida’s growth got a big boost from retirees who are downsizing from pricier regions and picking up housing deals here, said Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor.

While Southwest Florida’s prices have been rising fast recently, he noted the area still is significantly underpriced based on its “equilibrium price” — the point at which supply balances with demand. The report says Naples-Marco Island is 18 percent below its equilibrium price of $327,087, while Cape Coral-Fort Myers is 27 percent under the equilibrium price of $234,247.

The growing influx of retirees into the market likely will create more service- and consumption-related jobs in the near future, said Bruce Register, director of the Office of Business and Development for Collier County.

“You’d expect some impact on demand,” he said.

Retirees have another positive effect on the economy since most aren’t competing with local workers for jobs, said Scott Cody, research demographer for the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

“Moreover, they’re bringing their pensions and Social Security with them, which increase the area’s wealth,” he said.

The UF economic research bureau projects that the estimated 330,000 population in Collier County will grow about 51 percent, to 497,700, by 2040 from 2012. Lee’s population of about 630,000 is expected to expand nearly 68 percent to 1,070,200 during the same period.

Most of that population will be fueled by people coming from other places, Cody said.

Rick Burris, principal planner for Lee County’s Community Development Planning Division, also expects the county’s population will explode during the next few decades, largely because it is affordable compared to many larger metropolitan areas.

While some new residents will be elderly, he also anticipates an uptick in the county’s minority population, which has been growing rapidly in recent years.

He also expects an influx of younger workers attracted by the large corporations Lee County is aggressively courting, such as Hertz and Altos Research.

But rapid growth may bring some downsides, he predicts, particularly for residents who came to Southwest Florida to live a bucolic life in a low-density environment, Burris said.

“As we grow, the challenge will be to attract new people while retaining the old,” he said.

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