Strong Inventory Favorable for Pre-Season Buyers

Naples, Fla. (November 1, 2024) – Overall inventory of homes in Naples increased 37.3 percent in September to 4,288 properties from 3,123 properties in September 2023, which benefits home buyers. According to the September 2024 Market Report by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), the rise in inventory was met with increased buyer interest as indicated by pending sales (sales under contract) during September, which increased 1 percent to 622 pending sales from 619 pending sales in September 2023. Broker analysts reviewing the September report are confident more sellers will enter the market in the coming months in anticipation of a visitor increase during the winter. Pre-season buyers are encouraged to take advantage of the increased property selections available before competition heats up.

Will Supply Exceed Demand?

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the “months’ supply” data refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace. Lower levels of months’ supply tend to push prices up, while higher months’ supply puts downward pressure on prices. For the Naples market, the months’ supply in September was 6.3 months. Nationally, a six months’ supply is associated with moderate price appreciation.

However, according to Cindy Carroll of Carroll & Carroll Appraisers & Consultants, LLC, “The Naples market is unique, and in my experience, a 12 months’ supply of homes has historically been where our market enjoys a balance.” A balanced housing market is when the supply of homes for sale is roughly equal to the demand from buyers. In a balanced market, neither buyers nor sellers command an advantage, and prices tend to remain stable.

While overall closed sales decreased 13.2 percent in September to 527 closed sales from 607 closed sales in September 2023, the rise in days on the market (from 59 in September 2023 to 83 in September 2024) means it is taking longer for homes to go from pending status to closed status. According to broker analysts, the monthly pending sales data is a significant contributing factor of the overall housing market health. They are currently optimistic that the recent increase in pending sales will continue to improve over the next six months, suggesting a positive outlook for the housing market.

What Challenges Lie Ahead?

Interestingly, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) indicates that home sales increased following nine of the last 11 presidential elections.

Carroll remarked that, “Given the increase in inventory, I would expect to see more prices decreases. But I have not seen a loss in value yet.”

The lack of noticeable price drops could be due to several factors including: still high demand relative to supply, buyer hesitancy related to interest rates or the election, or sellers being reluctant to significantly lower prices.

The overall median closed price in September increased 2.4 percent to $588,560 from $575,000 in September 2023. Compared to previous market reports in 2024, September’s median closed price was the lowest reported so far. However, it is still far above the median closed price reported during September 2019, which was $325,000.

The NABOR® September 2024 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. NABOR® sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings for 2024:

Inventory Hike Helps April Home Sales Swell

Naples, Fla. (May 31, 2024) – The payoff of months of rising inventory was finally realized in April as closed sales increased 3.8 percent to 999 closed sales from 962 closed sales in April 2023. This is the first month closed sales have exceeded past years’ monthly comparable sales since June 2021. According to the April 2024 Market Report by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), the 2,365 price reductions in April stimulated sales in the right direction. Growth in inventory does not appear to be slowing down either, as new listings in April increased 16.3 percent to 1,335 new listings from 1,148 new listings in April 2023.

The New Average

Demand for the Naples lifestyle increased during the pandemic, which depleted inventory for homes in the under $300,000 market – there were 315 homes for sale under $300,000 in April. Conversely, demand for luxury properties have soared, especially in the $500,000 to $1.5 million price category, which increased 68.1 percent compared to April 2023 and occupy the highest number of properties available (2,410) in the current inventory.

However, according to the report, closed sales influencing the overall average price growth was in the Naples Beach area. For April, the average closed price of single family homes in communities located in the Naples Beach area (34102, 34103, 34108) increased 61.6 percent to $4,309,475 from $2,666,512 in April 2023. That said, this area was also where a large majority of properties sold for less than original list price as the percent of list price received decreased to 93.3 percent for single family homes and 94.8 percent for condominiums. This indicates sellers are reducing prices to meet the market.

Future Fit & Forward

According to the April report, the average monthly inventory in Naples is back to its familiar pre-pandemic level. April’s inventory increased 68.1 percent to 5,240 properties from 3,118 properties in April 2023. And the months supply of homes is up to 7.3 months. Huskey commented, “Typically, we begin to see prices slide once the months supply gets above 6 months, but we’re not seeing this in our market today. Inventory is growing, and prices remain stable.”

“Home values have doubled since 2019,” said Cindy Carroll of Carroll & Carroll Appraisers & Consultants, LLC. “And there’s no indication that homeowners are at risk of losing this growth in value.”

Carroll went on to say that there will be spots in the county that will experience a slight loss in value, but nothing on a large scale or that would take us back to pre-pandemic prices. “I am unable to find anything in my research that is alarming. The thing we have to focus on now is re-educating our sellers on home prices today. Their home’s value has likely increased, but the number of price reductions each month tells me that prices are still starting out too high. If a home is not priced competitively when it’s listed, sellers will likely need to lower the price to meet the market.”

As more high-end buyers discover the allure of Naples, broker analysts do not foresee the median closed price decreasing dramatically. For April, the overall median closed price increased 4 percent to $450,000 from $425,000 in April 2023. Though price adjustments are moving the needle in certain markets. April reported 2,365 price decreases, which decreased the median closed price 3.2 percent in the single family home market to $793,750 from $820,000 in April 2023.

The NABOR® April 2024 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. NABOR® sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings for 2024: