Highlights from the NABOR® Economic Summit Event
Naples, Fla. (May 2, 2016) – More than 400 REALTORS® and real estate professionals interested in the economic health of Collier County attended the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®) 2016 Economic Summit, “The New Future: A View from the Top,” on Thursday, April 21, 2016 at the Hilton Naples. Three guest speakers provided national, state, and local analysis of recent growth and home sales activity as well as predictions of what to expect in the next 12 months.
Cindy Carroll, SRA, with the real estate appraisal and consultancy firm Carroll & Carroll, Inc., set the tone of the conference when she asserted, “I’m a truth teller!” The audience’s familiarity with Carroll’s wit brought laughs, but the comment wasn’t in vain as her reputation in deciphering predictive patterns in market behavior commands serious respect. Carroll’s presentation reflected the First Quarter 2016 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island).
“My headline for March would be ‘Inventory is up 35 percent over the last 12 months,'” said Carroll, who added that it fell 22 percent between March 2013 and March 2014, but only fell 1 percent between March 2014 and March 2015. “Anytime there is less than 6 months worth of inventory, prices go up. But we’re currently at 7.3 months of inventory and the report shows very little movement in price. When we get to 9 months, price increases will most likely really slow down. When we achieve a years worth of inventory – what I consider a balanced market for our area – then we’ll start to see pricing mature anywhere between 4 to 8 percent.” Carroll added that if the Naples area ever achieves 2 years worth of inventory (something it experienced in 2006) again, then we may begin to see signs of value erosion.
Where is all this inventory? “Not in the $0 to $300,000 single-family home market,” said Carroll. “This segment’s inventory is down 10 percent and its median closed price is up 15 percent. Inventory in all other price categories within the single-family home market increased from 18 to 42 percent.”
According to Carroll, in December 2010 the median closed price for the single-family home market broke $300,000. The under $300,000 market consumed 44 percent of the market then. Now, it makes up only 12 percent of the market. Interestingly, the median closed price in the condominium market broke $300,000 in December 2013. But today the median closed price in the condominium market is $252,000. For perspective, condominiums in the $0 to $300,000 price category represented 59 percent of the condo market in December 2010. Now, they are only 48 percent of what’s available.
Carroll said there appears to also be an exodus to the Ave Maria area as the single-family home median closed price rose 105 percent in that area. “Buyers seeking affordable housing are going East!”
Most neighborhoods west of U.S. 41 exceeded or are nearing a stable market level of one year of inventory. Meanwhile, a severe shortage of supply persists in the entry-level markets of Golden Gate City and Naples Manor.
When Mike Timmerman, President and CEO of MJT Realty Economic Advisors, took the stage, he said the speculative home market in neighborhoods nearest U.S. 41 had peaked about a year and a half ago. “There is a 60-month supply of new product in Pine Ridge,” he said. “And the Park Shore and Moorings neighborhoods are in a major redevelopment phase too.”
One big change Timmerman likes is the new architectural designs being chosen. “Instead of the Mediterranean style home, we are now seeing homes in Neo-classical styles.”
Between 2014 and 2015, developers added 3,500 new units around Collier. “There’s now an excess supply and we are starting to see communities offer incentives again,” said Timmerman. “But it’s unclear what effects this election year will have on out-of-state buyers next season.”
Timmerman concluded with a few predictions:
- The current pace of redevelopment will create more price reductions,
- High rise development will see a resurgence,
- REALTORS® will see more incentives from community developers, and
- Communities will introduce more multi-family product.
Despite commenting that spending in the upper-end of the market is sensitive to an election cycle, Dr. Lawrence Yun, PhD, Chief Economist National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) said, “The wealthy are looking for great options and this area has them.”
“Lifetime wealth is at an all time high,” said Yun, who added that middle America’s income is falling.
“Corporations are sitting on cash and this lack of infusion into the market is why growth is sluggish.”
Yun went on to add that, “Homeownership is near a 50-year low, but home sales are rising nationally. “Young people are struggling to get in the market, but the new tight lending standards are hammering Millennials and, saddled with too much college student loan debt, they can’t qualify for home loans.”
Vacation home sales surged in 2014 according to Yun, and he sees pending sales holding steady nationally for now. “Mortgage rates will go up moderately,” said Yun, adding that the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates twice this year and up to four times in 2017.
In closing, Yun said builders in Florida are not adding product fast enough and this will create a pinch in an already tight rental market, where rates will continue to rise.
Naples, Fla. (February 19, 2016) – Despite a slight decrease in overall pending and closed sales, other areas of the Naples real estate market continue to be moving into a stable, balanced market between buyers and sellers, according to the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island).
The NABOR Market Report for the 12-months ending January 2016, showed that inventory during January 2016 rose 13 percent to 5,091 homes from 4,515 homes in January 2015. Average Days on Market in January 2016 decreased 14 percent to 75 days from 87 days in January 2015.
Broker analysts reviewing the January 2016 Market Report agreed that several external factors also may have contributed to this stability in the real estate market including unpredictable activity in the stock market, dramatic decreases in oil prices, a harsh Canadian exchange rate, and the fact that it is a presidential election year.
The January report showed double-digit increases in inventory for all price segments above $300,000. For example, the $500,000 to $1 million price segment experienced the highest increase with a 26 percent increase in inventory to 1,245 homes in January 2016 from 990 homes in January 2015. In the single-family home market this same price category had a 31 percent increase in inventory to 829 homes in January 2016 from 632 homes in January 2015. Yet surprisingly, while inventory in the condominium market also rose in every price category above $300,000, it was the $1 million to $2 million price category that saw the biggest jump with a 39 percent increase to 201 condominiums in January 2016 from 145 condominiums in January 2015.
According to a Broker, inventory is up by nearly 600 homes since last January, which equates to 6.1 months of inventory, the highest since April 2013. Buyer opportunities improve with the increase in inventory.
“While not evident in the report, REALTORS® in the field are seeing investment properties come back onto the market,” said Brenda Fioretti, Managing Broker at Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Florida Realty. “And even though the report showed a 23 percent decrease in overall pending sales for existing homes year over year, it was probably offset by an increase in new home sales.”
The NABOR® January 2016 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. The NABOR® January 2016 sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:
- Overall pending sales decreased 23 percent to 847 in January 2016 from 1,103 in January 2015.
- Pending sales for condominiums in the $1 million to $2 million price category increased 14 percent to 32 condominiums in January 2016 from 28 condominiums in January 2015.
- Pending sales for condominiums in the $2 million and above price category spiked 100 percent to 22 condominiums in January 2016 from 11 condominiums in January 2015.
- Overall closed sales decreased 1 percent to 9,712 homes in the 12-months ending January 2016 from 9,827 homes in the 12-months ending January 2015.
- Closed sales for single-family homes in the Immokalee/Ave Maria area rose 78 percent to 48 single-family homes in the 12-months ending January 2016 from 27 single-family homes in the 12-months ending January 2015.
- Overall median closed price increased 13 percent to $309,000 in the 12-months ending January 2016 from $273,000 in the 12-months ending January 2015.
- Overall median closed price for homes over $300,000 decreased 4 percent to $520,000 in the 12-months ending January 2016 from $540,000 in the 12-months ending January 2015.
- Overall inventory increased 13 percent to 5,091 homes in January 2016 from 4,515 homes in January 2015.
- Average days on market decreased 14 percent to 75 days in January 2016 from 87 days in January 2015.
Naples, Fla. (January 22, 2015) – Activity in the housing market for much of Collier County in 2015 looked like year-end activity in 2014, according to broker analysts who reviewed the Annual, 4th Quarter and December 2015 Market Reports released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island).
Much like 2014, and as evidenced in the Annual 2015 Market Report, overall pending sales (homes under contract) and closed sales in 2015 were steady in all price segments above $300,000, with the $300,000 – $500,000 price category experiencing the most dramatic increase. The median closed price for homes on both ends of the price spectrum rose the sharpest in 2015, while all remaining price categories in the middle of the market stayed relatively balanced. And inventory for all price categories grew in 2015, with the exception of the $300,000 and below price segment, which saw a reduction of 261 homes.
According to the 2015 year-end report, overall pending sales decreased 1 percent in 2015 from 10,494 homes in 2014 to 10,366 homes in 2015. However, pending sales in all price categories above $300,000 increased. Of note, pending sales in the $300,000 – $500,000 price category rose 21 percent from 2,137 homes in 2014 to 2,580 homes in 2015. Likewise, overall closed sales decreased 2 percent from 9,902 homes in 2014 to 9,751 homes in 2015. And similar to pending sales, overall closed sales in all price categories above $300,000 increased, with the $300,000 – $500,000 price category experiencing the largest increase (20 percent) going from 1,978 homes in 2014 to 2,382 homes in 2015.
The median closed price rose 14 percent from $270,000 in 2014 to $308,000 in 2015. Driven mostly by homes $300,000 and below (which rose 12 percent from $179,000 in 2014 to $200,000 in 2015), and homes $2 million and above (which rose 9 percent from $2,950,000 in 2014 to $3,212,000 in 2015), the overall median closed price for price segments in the middle of the market remained temperate.
According to a broker, the report showed a significant price increase in the $2 million and above single-family home market in 2015. “This category experienced a 12 percent increase in price from $3,000,000 in 2014 to $3,350,000 in 2015, despite also having a 12 percent increase in its inventory.”
The NABOR® 2015 Annual Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary. The NABOR® Annual 2015 sales statistics are presented in chart format, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:
- Overall pending sales decreased 1 percent from 10,494 homes in 2014 to 10,366 homes in 2015.
- Pending sales for single-family homes in the $300,000 and below price category decreased 30 percent from 2,394 single-family homes in 2014 to 1,686 single-family homes in 2015.
- Overall closed sales decreased 2 percent from 9,902 homes in 2014 to 9,751 homes in 2015.
- Closed sales for condominiums in the $300,000 to $500,000 price category increased 26 percent from 773 condominiums in 2014 to 972 condominiums in 2015.
- Overall median closed price increased 14 percent from $270,000 in 2014 to $308,000 in 2015.
- Overall median closed price for homes over $300,000 decreased 3 percent from $536,000 in 2014 to $520,000 in 2015.
- Overall median closed price for homes in the Immokalee/Ave Maria geographic area increased 42 percent from $151,000 in 2014 to $215,000 in 2015.
- Overall inventory increased 1 percent from 4,351 in 2014 to 4,408 in 2015.
- There is a 5.42 months supply of inventory.
- Average days on market decreased 10 percent from 87 days in 2014 to 78 days in 2015.
- Average days on market for condominiums in the $2 million and above price category decreased 40 percent from 136 days in 2014 to 82 days in 2015.
Many brokers believe uncommonly warm weather in northern states delayed buyer migration to Naples in the fourth quarter 2015, contributing to the 12 percent decrease in closed sales for the fourth quarter of 2015. However, overall activity in 2015 made great strides.
“We currently have a 5.42-month supply of inventory, which is up 6 percent over 2014 [5.12],” said Cindy Carroll, SRA, with the real estate appraisal and consultancy firm Carroll & Carroll, Inc. “Granted, we are nowhere near our historic peak in 2008 when we had a 3-years supply of inventory, but this is definitely the first year since the recession that we’ve seen an increase.”
The report also showed traditional sales (versus short sale and foreclosed property sales) held steady at 92 percent of all transactions in the last three months of 2015. And conventional sales (properties that obtained financing) increased 3 percent to consume 35.7 percent of the market in December 2015 compared to 32.6 percent in December 2014.
In January 2015, broker analysts predicted a self-correcting housing market based on activity in 2014. Today, broker analysts assessing overall activity in 2015 say they remain confident that the local housing market will continue to perform in a steady manner.
The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and who subscribe to its strict Code of Ethics.
From realtor.com by Yuqing Pan | January 11, 2016
To figure out which of these towns were drawing would-be buyers, we aggregated page view data on realtor.com® in December 2015 to pinpoint where people are actually checking out houses online. With the homes in Hawaii and Southern California busting most people’s budgets, all eyeballs are now on the Sunshine State.
The housing market in Southwest Florida has been red-hot for the past few years, but Sarasota (No.1) is getting blistering.
Here’s the full list and median list prices:
Hottest waterfront real estate markets
Sarasota, FL: $339,000
Naples, FL: $479,000
Myrtle Beach, SC: $168,950
Delray Beach, FL: $248,950
Vero Beach, FL: $309,000
Miami Beach, FL: $569,000
Jupiter, FL: $489,000
Lake Worth, FL: $210,000
Venice, FL: $265,000
Palm Harbor, FL: $235,000
Of course, coastal communities vary as widely as the people who vacation in them. That’s why we crunched the numbers further to come up with the top 10 beach towns for four types of vacationers (Best Outdoor Activities, Cleanest Water, Best Weather, Nightlife). So slip on the Havaianas, slather on some SPF 50, and let’s get to the beach!
Read the complete article here.
A broad sugar sand beach awaits your footprints in Park Shore area of Naples, Florida.
RISMEDIA, Saturday, December 19, 2015— For the first time since 2001, Florida, our nation’s 27th state, is back on top as Americans’ most desired habitation destination. When asked where – excluding their current state – they would most like to live, The Sunshine State is at the top of the list. Sunshine and waterfront acreage are consistent themes at the top of this list, with California (2) and Hawaii(3) rounding out the top three. Turning away from beachfront territories, Colorado (4) and New York (5) close out the top five states Americans would like to live in.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,232 U.S. adults surveyed online between November 11 and 16, 2015. Full results of this study, including data tables, can be found here.
Despite some re-ordering, this year’s top five were, for the most part, also top-five honorees in 2013 (the last time this question was asked); the sole exception is New York, which edged into the top-five after a sixth place showing last time around. Texas, meanwhile, drops out of the top five and into 6th place this year.
The remaining 9 states on the “top 15” list include diverse geographies, though most do fall within a few general categories:
- The coasts are well-represented: Along with Florida, the Carolinas – North (7) and South (12) – and Georgia cover most of the southeastern United States beachfront. Meanwhile, Oregon (9) and Washington (14) make for full west coast coverage (when combined with California);
- Perhaps for some it’s not the coast but the warmth which takes precedence, as landlocked-but-sunny states Arizona (8) andTennessee (10) also make the list;
- Hawaii’s partner in non-contiguity (though its opposite on the size and weather spectrums), Alaska (11), makes an appearance; and
- Pennsylvania (15) represents the mid-Atlantic while rounding out the top 15.
Of course, many states have both admirers and detractors. California may be 2nd on the list of states Americans would like to live in, but it also tops the list of states where Americans would least like to dwell. New York and Alaska may both be top 15 performers when Americans say where they would like to live, but they also round out the top three states where Americans would not want to live (2 and 3, respectively). Mississippi (4) and Texas (5) complete the top 5 for the dubious list, with Alabama (6), Florida (7), Illinois (8), Michigan(9) and the District of Columbia (10) completing the top 10.
Favorite and Least Favorite Cities
Focusing in on cities Americans would (and wouldn’t) want to live in, Americans continue their love/hate relationship with The Big Apple. New York, N.Y. has topped The Harris Poll’s list of cities where Americans most want to live (excluding where they live now) for well over a decade, but it has also topped the list of cities they’d least like to live in since the question was first asked in 2010.
California and Florida are well represented among the top 10 most desired cities, with San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco nabbing the 2nd, 4th and 6th spots for the Golden State, while Miami and Orlando bring the 5th and 10th spots home to the Sunshine State.
Denver, Colo. (3) fills in the lone gap in the top five, while Honolulu, Hawaii (7); Atlanta, Ga. (8) and Seattle, Wash. (9) fill out the rest of the top 10.
The top three cities Americans would least want to live in have remained the same since this question was first asked in 2010, with the aforementioned New York, N.Y. at the top, followed by Detroit, Mich. (2) and Los Angeles (3). Chicago, Ill. repeats in 4th place, while Dallas, Texas (5) rounds out the top five. Miami, Fla. (6); San Francisco, Calif. (7); Houston, Texas (8); Washington, DC (9) and Las Vegas, Nev. (10) complete this less desirable top 10 list.
For more information, visit www.TheHarrisPoll.com.
Naples, Fla. (December 18, 2015) – The November 2015 Market Report released by the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), showed many performance similarities to the same report from November 2014. And those similarities left broker analysts who review the report with a sense of satisfaction because they predicted a continuation of market stability in November 2014. If history is any indication of future performance, then activity reflected in the November 2015 Market Report may indicate a market that is poised to enjoy stable activity in the coming months.
“The only big difference between November 2014 and November 2015 was inventory,” said Brenda Fioretti, Managing Broker at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Realty, who went on to add that overall inventory in November 2015 increased in three of the five price segments reported. “Overall inventory decreased by 1 percent from 4,136 homes in November 2014 to 4,095 homes in November 2015. But this is compared to a 10 percent decrease in inventory from November 2013 to November 2014. And yet the report indicated inventory is on the rebound in the single-family home market, which showed a 5 percent increase from 2,217 homes in November 2014 to 2,319 homes in November 2015.”
Fioretti also pointed out that overall closed sales for 12-months ending November 2015 reflected nearly the same number of sales as 12-months ending November 2014. Overall closed sales increased 1 percent from 9,724 homes in the 12-months ending November 2014 to 9,800 homes in the 12-months ending November 2015. Interestingly, closed sales in the 12-months ending November 2013 to November 2014 dropped 2 percent.
Overall pending sales for all price categories above $300,000 increased in November 2015, with the $1 million to $2 million price category showing the largest growth at 27 percent from 45 homes in November 2014 to 57 homes in November 2015.
“Homes under $300,000 are going fast,” said a local Broker/Owner. “Days on market for that segment dropped 11 percent from 57 to 51 days, which doesn’t leave a lot of time for serious buyers to shop around.”
In response, a local Broker, recommended buyers that are looking in this price category should “move faster when submitting an offer to get ahead of other potential buyers that might be looking at the same property. With a declining inventory pool in the low end, there appears to be no shortage of buyers for the properties under $300,000. Competition is coming from first time homebuyers, boomerang buyers and retirees living on a fixed income. The low end is also popular with investors.”
Overall inventory in the $300,000 and below price segment decreased 20 percent from 1,372 homes in November 2014 to 1,103 homes in November 2015. Yet since November 2013, inventory in this price segment has dropped 42 percent from 1,917 in November 2013 to 1,103 in November 2015. This segment also represented 50 percent of all closed sales in the 12-months ending November 2015.
“Foreclosures are the lowest they’ve ever been since NABOR® began tracking activity,” said a local Broker. “There were only 34 foreclosures and 8 short sales reported last month.”
The NABOR® November 2015 Market Report provides comparisons of single-family home and condominium sales (via the Southwest Florida MLS), price ranges, and geographic segmentation and includes an overall market summary, including these overall (single-family and condominium) findings:
- Overall pending sales decreased 3 percent from 825 homes in November 2014 to 804 homes in November 2015.
- Overall closed sales increased 1 percent from 9,724 homes in the 12-months ending November 2014 to 9,800 in the 12-months ending November 2015.
- Closed sales for single-family homes in the $300,000 to $500,000 price category increased 23 percent from 1,163 single-family homes in the 12-months ending November 2014 to 1,430 single-family homes in the 12-months ending November 2015.
- Closed sales for condominiums in the $300,000 to $500,000 price category increased 32 percent from 734 condominiums in the 12-months ending November 2014 to 968 condominiums in the 12-months ending November 2015.
- Overall median closed price increased 15 percent from $265,000 in the 12-months ending November 2014 to $305,000 in the 12-months ending November 2015.
- Overall median closed price for homes $2 million and above increased 10 percent from $2,950,000 in the 12-months ending November 2014 to $3,250,000 in the 12-months ending November 2015.
- Overall inventory decreased 1 percent from 4,136 in November 2014 to 4,095 in November 2015.
Single-family home inventory increased 5 percent from 2,217 single-family homes in November 2014 to 2,319 single-family homes in November 2015.
- There is a 5 months supply of inventory.
- Average days on market decreased 1 percent from 78 days in November 2014 to 77 days in November 2015.
The November 2015 Market Report showed days on market for the $2 million and above price category increased 124 percent from 99 days in November 2014 to 222 days in November 2015. Inventory in this category also increased by 21 percent from 401 homes in November 2014 to 484 homes in November 2015.
Days on market for all other price categories decreased. However, days on market by geographic location were more varied as shown in areas like Naples Beach and North Naples, which both saw increases over 20 percent.
